The Mid-term Market Trend Has Progressed to 85%

Liquid Fund Metrics Ventures Market Insight Summary:

With BTC surpassing $40,000, meeting our earlier projections, both BTC and ETH have entered a bullish market at the accumulation level, signifying the initiation of a new bull market cycle.

In order to capitalize on profits and liquidate high leverage, a pullback is expected, aiming to reset the cost above $30,000. A reasonable pullback position is anticipated around $35,000.

Critical time points for a significant pullback include the January ETF decision, April halving, and possibly an ETF approval in June. Especially in January, irrespective of the ETF outcome, a market decline may occur.

The true bull market is predicted to commence after the April halving and the June ETF decision. Attention should be given to a potential pullback in late December.

This report provides an overview and analysis by Metrics Ventures of the overall performance and market trends in the cryptocurrency market in November.

In Metrics Ventures' last monthly report, we forecasted that once BTC broke $30,000, it would reach $40,000. Now that BTC has surpassed $40,000 and ETH has crossed the weekly MA120 bull-bear line, confirming a bullish trend, we assert the initiation of a new bull market cycle.

For those who purchased spot positions below $28,000 for BTC and below $1,700 for ETH with the intention to hold for the long term, it is recommended to transfer these positions to cold wallets now. Consider ignoring them and contemplate trading after 2025.

Regarding the pressing question - is there still a correction, and when will it happen? I believe that's not the right question. Corrections are inevitable, but the essential question is, during a 20-30% correction, are you prepared to go all in?

The early stages of market development are always winding and unpredictable. We believe that the mid-term market trend from October to the present has progressed to 85%. It is evident that BTC and ETH are showing a clear trend of accelerating sprint. The specific peek price is not crucial. Predicting such a specific top is not meaningful.

Corrections are imminent. The market's excitement has peaked. BitMEX funding and premiums are nearing emotional highs. Examining the profit level from on-chain BTC holdings reveals a proximity to that of July and October 2020. Recognizing an impending correction is crucial. It's also important to understand the primary purpose of this correction is to allow profiting accumulations exit and liquidate high-leveraged positions, solidifying accumulations before the main upward wave in the bull market.

In terms of expected correction timings, three key points in the next six months are crucial: mid-January ETF approval decision, April halving, and potential June ETF approval. if the ETF is approved in January, the expected landing will undoubtedly trigger a significant correction. On the other hand, if the ETF decision is further delayed in January, causing expectations to fall short, it may lead to an exodus of profiting investors, ultimately resulting in a correction. Regardless of the ETF outcome in January, a market correction is deemed inevitable.

Looking further into the future, if we anticipate a correction after the January ETF decision, followed by a gradual climb leading up to the halving, the second systemic correction might occur around June. Assuming our premise of an inevitable ETF approval holds true, June is likely the final approval time point before the second bull market phase. However, it's crucial to emphasize the correction following the accelerated peak of the current mid-term market in late December, the most important window for strategic positioning.

Concerning target prices for the correction, the primary cost of long-term accumulations on-chain is concentrated in the $28,000 to $30,000 range. The current price has deviated considerably, so the correction is likely to be achieved through profit-taking exodus, solidifying long-term costs. The nature of the pullback is akin to '312' in 2020, involving profit-taking exodus and leverage liquidation. The goal is to settle the long-term accumulation cost above $30,000. Therefore, the most extreme correction space would be a retracement to around $32,000 (a dream scenario), while the reasonable retracement level is around $35,000. This is also the cost range for all the accumulations chasing the rise after the false-news-driven breakout of BTC.

Reflecting on market trends from October to the present, the market seems to lack a particularly clear absolute main trend. The significant rebounds in early November were primarily based on the logic of accumulation structure. Many tokens experienced a violent decline in late 2022 due to the collapse of FTX, creating a massive vacuum of accumulations, such as MATIC. This rebound is a recovery of the accumulation vacuum zone from the end of 2022. Many tokens completed a 10-month accumulating phase, such as SOL, LINK, DYDX, making their bottoms solid. Alternatively, new coins that have recently joined major CEXs, such as TIA and PYTH, have also gained attention.

Investors who have experienced market cycles often feel that they are in a state of chaotic and impulsive trading at this stage, as if there are no genuinely new things emerging. This aligns with the characteristics of thematic rotation in the rebound from the market bottom.

In the mid to late November, amidst the market surge, there were three themes that can be considered as main trends, namely the BTC ecosystem represented by Ordi, gaming, and AI. They have shown potential to become mainstream narratives in the next cycle.

While many tokens have seen significant rises, we believe that these three themes are still early, currently in a somewhat chaotic state. Buying into them is profitable, but there's no need to be anxious if you haven't. The current market speculation around these themes resembles meme logic, where different IQ groups focus on different meme themes. IQ 10 and IQ 150 may be focusing on Ordi (and also DePin), IQ 100 on AI, and IQ 50 on gaming. There are even many elite individuals with hedge fund backgrounds sticking to Perp Dex and old DeFi. Chinese traders are into Inscriptions, the Western traders are into POW and Solana ecosystems, and in Korea, there's enthusiasm for LUNC. Each group has its own meme, and this is not intended to be offensive; it's just a reflection of various preferences (personally, I consider myself in the IQ 50 group).

In conclusion, the market is 'still early.' Let's savor the joy of the accelerating wave. The current phase, where prices rise and fall, is just the early turnover of early bull market accumulations. There are plenty of opportunities ahead. Let's cast our nets wide to catch the big fish in January and February. As for macroeconomic factors, interest rate changes, and the complex influences of the U.S. stock market, we've emphasized repeatedly since October 2023 that these are not important and not the main contradictions.

In the end, the intrinsic innovation of the crypto industry is what demands our attention in the ongoing crypto cycle, and capital will naturally follow to enter the market.